An Indiana Capital Chronicle piece recently covered the Indiana Coalition for Public Education’s assertion that “public schools in Indiana will lose $744.4 million in total across 3 years starting in 2026, with the greatest losses happening in 2028 with a projected revenue loss of $336 million.” And, well, there’s been a lot of buzz around this. Especially in an election year where as many as 100 different public school districts may pursue a referendum on the November ballot.

The ICPE make this assertion following the impact of 2025’s Senate Enrolled Act 1, a major piece of legislation that reduced the amount of property taxes collected to support schools and local government functions.

But is their assertion true? Well, yes and no. I guess it all depends, per usual, on how you frame things.

The Impact of SEA 1 on Public School Budgets

SEA 1 unequivocally does at least one thing: It reduces the amount of property taxes that public schools are projected to collect in future years. But that money does not exist yet. So to say they are “losing money” feels like a linguistic scare tactic (even if I understand the sentiment driving the use of said scare tactic).

Assessed property values statewide are projected to continue rising. That’s ultimately what drives how much is collected in property taxes. And because they are expected to continue rising, many public school districts can expect to see increasing property tax revenues in the years to come. Because of SEA 1, they will not receive as much as originally projected. But many of them will receive more than they do now.

Of course, property taxes aren’t collected in a vacuum. Inflation keeps getting worse and a recession may be on the horizon. Schools are under increased pressure just for existing. A continued increase may not be sufficient, especially when schools were making plans around previous projections that would have seen even larger increases. Yet that, to me, is different than simply saying “public schools are losing money.”

But! That equation I just spelled out where some districts will continue to see increases (albeit lower increases than projections from before SEA 1 passed), not all will. Some truly will see reduced budgets in the years to come regardless of what inflation looks like. Time for a few examples from across the state.

Tangible Examples of SEA 1’s Expected Impact on Property Tax Revenue

First, the more positive side. Take Indianapolis Public Schools (IPS). Using the handy interactive guide on ICPE’s website, you get this graph regarding their expected property tax revenues in the years ahead.

The red line is what IPS will collect in property taxes in the aftermath of SEA 1 and the green line is what they would have collected if SEA 1 never saw the Governor’s desk. Notice that both lines stay entirely above the starting point marked in 2024-25 and clearly increase year over year.

In 2027-28, IPS will be collecting approximately $20 million more in property taxes than they did in 2024-25. Without SEA 1, they would have collected about $25 million more in 2027-28 compared to 2024-25. So, yes, they will receive less compared to that original projection. But their revenue still goes up year over year.

This is not the universal experience of every district statewide though. Some experience flat revenue in 2025-26 before increases in subsequent years (e.g. Avon Community School Corporation). Others see an initial loss in 2025-26 before recovery to the point where their budget increases year over year and remains well above the 2024-25 starting point (e.g. Adams Central Community School Corporation).

Still others see initial rises in overall property tax revenues before declines in 2027-28. See the graph for South Bend below where things start okay but take a decidedly negative turn.

And in rare cases, some districts see lower property tax revenue in 2027-28 than their absolute starting point in 2024-25. Consider Beech Grove’s graph below.

Spend a few minutes clicking through ICPE’s interactive tool and you’ll find all kinds of districts that fit each of those basic profiles.

So are We in Fact Headed for an Unprecedented Number of Referendums This Year?

My point is that many different things are true at once and to lay out just a single one of them as “the truth” misdirects or shoehorns the conversation into unproductive territory. There’s a nuanced picture here. Painting it might be tilting at windmills. But it feels a worthwhile tilt.

I certainly don’t think it’s fair to characterize the situation as public schools losing nearly $750 million over the next three years in the way ICPE does. Nor, in picking apart their framing, am I trying to hand-wave away concerns over public school budgets in the aftermath of SEA 1.

Public schools are facing a reality where they will receive less property tax revenue than expected. In some cases, they really will lose money. But not all.

The upshot here? I do expect an unprecedented number of districts to pursue referendums this year. Beech Grove, South Bend, and numerous other places can make a compelling case to their communities for why they need one and what it will be used for.

But public schools need to make that case. And I think their communities should expect them to make the case with honesty, transparency, and nuance.