The Indianapolis Public Education Corporation (IPEC) last met at the end of May. The main order of business was to continue discussing the potential for a referendum on this November’s ballot to support Indianapolis Public Schools (IPS) and charter schools.

As part of that, IPEC heard a presentation from IPS Superintendent Dr. Aleesia Johnson and TogetherEd CEO Andy Siebert. Together, they ran through possible referendum amounts and the different impacts each would have on schools across IPS boundaries.

The headline for me? Simply renewing the existing IPS operating referendum at its current rate still spells financial doom for IPS, which in turn means ripples of smaller doom for all the Innovation Network charter schools that contract with IPS for services.

So is there a number that IPEC can advance, that taxpayers will stomach, and that IPS can leverage to get on firm financial footing without becoming an unrecognizable shell of itself?

Some Referendum Basics

The existing IPS operating referendum will have run for eight years when it expires at the end of this calendar year. Both IPS and the charter sector, according to the slideshow linked above, support a four-year referendum.

Regarding the “what will it be used for?” question, the biggest answer is “IPS’ solvency” given they face a $40 million deficit that is slated to grow in coming years, not shrink. In addition, the slideshow indicated a new referendum could help address the lack of resources currently dedicated to serving students with disabilities and English Language Learners in both IPS and charter schools.

Now, about those numbers.

One Size Does Not Fit All

They say it’s not the size of the dog in the fight that matters but the size of the fight in the dog. Or something like that. Well, with referendums, it remains to be seen whether it’s going to be a fight. But size definitely matters.

Feast your eyes on this color-coded table that I grabbed from the presentation to IPEC (slide 16 if you’d like to see for yourself).

The table lays out the different referendum amounts and their various impacts (both on taxpayers and on IPS/charter schools) with the assumption that all eligible charter schools in IPS boundaries will sign on to a referendum to receive funds (which essentially doubles the number of students who a referendum would support).

Referendums are couched in cents per $100 assessed value of an individual’s home. So under the current referendum, someone who owns a home valued at $200k pays about $170 annually on top of their typical property taxes. Note the black column under the $0.196. That’s the rate for the existing IPS operating referendum.

It’s blacked out because that way spells catastrophe. As your eyes might be leading you to believe, the color-coding as you move rightward means a rosier financial outlook for IPS. In fact, the presentation lobbied for the $0.55 column farthest to the right.

That would deliver around $65 million in annual revenue to IPS (replacing the $49 million generated annually under the existing referendum) and another $65 million in annual revenue to public charter schools in IPS boundaries. Taxpayers, meanwhile, would pay about $25/month in additional property taxes with a home value of $200k. But even in that ideal scenario, IPS estimates they’d have to cut around $700,000 from their current operating budget (on top of the recent cuts they’ve already made).

Will IPEC pursue such a massive referendum? If they do, will voters support it? I have serious doubts.

But that’s hardly the only option. Consider the $0.28 ask, which is in the ballpark of what I thought might be advanced. The “fiscal distress” next to the number of students impacted in that scenario is hard to ignore. Slide 17 offers more color when it notes “large-scale reductions” and “deep cuts” and “complete elimination of transportation services and Innovation partnerships.”

In short, still a doom scenario for IPS.

If I take the presentation at face value, anything less than a $0.50 rate results in a drastically different IPS. School closures. Personnel reductions. Fewer Innovation partnerships. Less transportation services. You get the picture.

Are We Kicking the Can Down the Road?

Does IPS essentially need a referendum of significant magnitude in perpetuity to continue existing? Well, in its current form, yeah. If there’s a world where a $0.55 referendum rate passes and IPS uses the intervening four years to continue business as usual, I imagine we’ll end up here again in 2030.

If, instead, IPS leverages a referendum (of whatever size IPEC thinks voters will support) to rework itself into a financially sustainable district, this process will have been a success. That’s not to say I think this referendum must be the referendum to end all referendums. But it must mark a shift from an untenable status quo to a more sustainable future.

Come June 22nd at IPEC’s next meeting, I’m sure I won’t be the only butt poised at the edge of my seat.